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BIT vs Shaanxi Changan Athletic — League One 2018

BIT
BIT
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
7/9/2022League OneLeague One · Round 8Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

BIT16%
×Draw22%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BIT
0.82
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.83

Shaanxi Changan Athletic creates 123% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 57 away

creates per match

BIT
0.59
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.42

allows per match

BIT
2.24
Shaanxi Changan Athletic
1.05

finishing

BIT+0.00on par
Shaanxi Changan Athletic+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BIT ↓

Shaanxi Changan Athletic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

BIT or draw
39%
BIT or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
78%
Draw or Shaanxi Changan Athletic
84%

Winning margin

BIT wins by 2+
5%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

BIT 1+ goals
56%
BIT 2+ goals
20%
BIT 3+ goals
5%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 1+ goals
84%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 2+ goals
54%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

BIT (draw refunded)
21%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BIT at home — creates 0.59, concedes 2.24 · 34 matches

Shaanxi Changan Athletic away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.05 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BIT attack 0.59 + Shaanxi Changan Athletic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.82

Shaanxi Changan Athletic attack 1.42 + BIT defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

BIT scores more
16%
level
22%
Shaanxi Changan Athletic scores more
61%

Shaanxi Changan Athletic at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Shaanxi Changan Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

BIT 0 – 4 Shaanxi Changan Athletic

Shaanxi Changan Athletic beat BIT 4-0 in League One on July 9, 2022.

The match was played at Jiangning Football Training Base Field No.2 in Nanjing.