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BIT vs Guangxi Lanhang — League Two 2022

BIT
BIT
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
9/7/2025League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 1Beijing Institute of Technology Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

BIT45%
×Draw28%
Guangxi Lanhang27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

BIT
1.31
Guangxi Lanhang
0.96

BIT creates 36% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 40 away

creates per match

BIT
1.11
Guangxi Lanhang
0.88

allows per match

BIT
1.04
Guangxi Lanhang
1.50

finishing

BIT+0.00on par
Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BIT ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

BIT or draw
73%
BIT or Guangxi Lanhang
72%
Draw or Guangxi Lanhang
55%

Winning margin

BIT wins by 2+
21%
Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

BIT 1+ goals
73%
BIT 2+ goals
38%
BIT 3+ goals
14%
Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
62%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
25%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

BIT (draw refunded)
62%
Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BIT at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BIT attack 1.11 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.31

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.88 + BIT defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

BIT scores more
45%
level
28%
Guangxi Lanhang scores more
27%

BIT at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "BIT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: BIT vs Guangxi Lanhang

BIT beat Guangxi Lanhang 3-0 in League Two on September 7, 2025.

The match was played at Beijing Institute of Technology Stadium in Beijing.