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Bistrica vs Zreče — 3. SNL - East 2020

Bistrica
Bistrica
FT
4 – 0
Zreče
Zreče
5/8/20213. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - Promotion Round - 1Športni park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Bistrica75%
×Draw14%
Zreče10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bistrica
2.88
Zreče
1.00

Bistrica creates 188% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

creates per match

Bistrica
2.75
Zreče
1.00

allows per match

Bistrica
1.00
Zreče
3.00

finishing

Bistrica+0.00on par
Zreče+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bistrica ↓

Zreče →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Bistrica or draw
90%
Bistrica or Zreče
86%
Draw or Zreče
25%

Winning margin

Bistrica wins by 2+
55%
Zreče wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bistrica 1+ goals
94%
Bistrica 2+ goals
78%
Bistrica 3+ goals
54%
Zreče 1+ goals
63%
Zreče 2+ goals
26%
Zreče 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bistrica (draw refunded)
88%
Zreče (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bistrica at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Zreče away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bistrica attack 2.75 + Zreče defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.88

Zreče attack 1.00 + Bistrica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Bistrica scores more
75%
level
14%
Zreče scores more
10%

Bistrica at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Bistrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bistrica vs Zreče

Bistrica beat Zreče 4-0 in 3. SNL - East on May 8, 2021.

The match was played at Športni park in Slovenska Bistrica.