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Bistrica vs Krško — 2. SNL 2019

Bistrica
Bistrica
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Krško
Krško
M. Kobal 84'
R. Freser 75'
G. Gorenak 64' (pen)
D. Kantuzer 41', 11'
A. Dukaric 36'
9/6/20252. SNL2. SNL · Round 5Športni park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Bistrica55%
×Draw23%
Krško23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bistrica
1.86
Krško
1.11

Bistrica creates 68% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 66 away

creates per match

Bistrica
1.93
Krško
1.05

allows per match

Bistrica
1.18
Krško
1.80

finishing

Bistrica+0.00on par
Krško+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bistrica ↓

Krško →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bistrica or draw
77%
Bistrica or Krško
77%
Draw or Krško
45%

Winning margin

Bistrica wins by 2+
31%
Krško wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bistrica 1+ goals
84%
Bistrica 2+ goals
55%
Bistrica 3+ goals
28%
Krško 1+ goals
67%
Krško 2+ goals
30%
Krško 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bistrica (draw refunded)
71%
Krško (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bistrica at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Krško away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.80 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bistrica attack 1.93 + Krško defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.86

Krško attack 1.05 + Bistrica defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bistrica scores more
55%
level
23%
Krško scores more
23%

Bistrica at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bistrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
D. Kantuzer
36'
A. Dukaric
41'
D. Kantuzer
64'
G. GorenakPenalty
75'
R. Freser
84'
M. Kobal
Bistrica
Krško
Robert Pevnik
Manager: Robert Pevnik
R. Regvar
Manager: R. Regvar

2. SNL: Bistrica 6–0 Krško

Bistrica beat Krško 6-0 in 2. SNL on September 6, 2025.

Goals: D. Kantuzer (11', 41'), A. Dukaric (36'), G. Gorenak (64' pen), R. Freser (75'), M. Kobal (84').

The match was played at Športni park in Slovenska Bistrica.