Bissingen 4–1 Villingen II: Result & Stats

Bissingen

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Villingen II

5/10/2025

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 31Stadion am Bruchwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bissingen68%

×Draw18%

Villingen II15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BissingenExpected goals in this matchVillingen II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.09

Bissingen

2.50

Villingen II

1.09

Bissingen creates 129% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 17 away

1.88

creates per match

0.59

1.59

allows per match

3.12

creates per match

Bissingen

1.88

Villingen II

0.59

allows per match

Bissingen

1.59

Villingen II

3.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bissingen+0.00on par

Villingen II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bissingen ↓

Villingen II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bissingen or draw

85%

Bissingen or Villingen II

82%

Draw or Villingen II

32%

Winning margin

Bissingen wins by 2+

46%

Villingen II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bissingen 1+ goals

92%

Bissingen 2+ goals

71%

Bissingen 3+ goals

45%

Villingen II 1+ goals

66%

Villingen II 2+ goals

30%

Villingen II 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bissingen (draw refunded)

82%

Villingen II (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bissingen at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

Villingen II away — creates 0.59, concedes 3.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bissingen attack 1.88 + Villingen II defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.50

Villingen II attack 0.59 + Bissingen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bissingen scores more

68%

level

18%

Villingen II scores more

15%

Bissingen at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bissingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff