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Bissingen vs SV Linx — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Bissingen
Bissingen
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 0
SV Linx
SV Linx
3/9/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 21Stadion am Bruchwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Bissingen53%
×Draw20%
SV Linx27%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bissingen
2.24
SV Linx
1.56

Bissingen creates 44% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 25 away

creates per match

Bissingen
1.88
SV Linx
1.52

allows per match

Bissingen
1.59
SV Linx
2.60

finishing

Bissingen+0.00on par
SV Linx+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bissingen ↓

SV Linx →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Bissingen or draw
73%
Bissingen or SV Linx
80%
Draw or SV Linx
47%

Winning margin

Bissingen wins by 2+
32%
SV Linx wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bissingen 1+ goals
89%
Bissingen 2+ goals
65%
Bissingen 3+ goals
38%
SV Linx 1+ goals
79%
SV Linx 2+ goals
46%
SV Linx 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bissingen (draw refunded)
66%
SV Linx (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bissingen at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

SV Linx away — creates 1.52, concedes 2.60 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bissingen attack 1.88 + SV Linx defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.24

SV Linx attack 1.52 + Bissingen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bissingen scores more
53%
level
20%
SV Linx scores more
27%

Bissingen at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bissingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bissingen vs SV Linx

Bissingen and SV Linx drew 3-3 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion am Bruchwald in Bietigheim-Bissingen.