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Bissingen vs Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Bissingen
Bissingen
FT
6 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
4/9/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 28Stadion am Bruchwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Bissingen50%
×Draw22%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen29%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bissingen
2.04
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.52

Bissingen creates 34% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 25 away

creates per match

Bissingen
1.88
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
1.44

allows per match

Bissingen
1.59
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
2.20

finishing

Bissingen+0.00on par
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bissingen ↓

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Bissingen or draw
71%
Bissingen or Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
78%
Draw or Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen
50%

Winning margin

Bissingen wins by 2+
29%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bissingen 1+ goals
87%
Bissingen 2+ goals
60%
Bissingen 3+ goals
33%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 1+ goals
78%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 2+ goals
45%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bissingen (draw refunded)
63%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bissingen at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bissingen attack 1.88 + Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.04

Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen attack 1.44 + Bissingen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bissingen scores more
50%
level
22%
Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen scores more
29%

Bissingen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bissingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bissingen vs Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen

Bissingen beat Sportfreunde Dorfmerkingen 6-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion am Bruchwald in Bietigheim-Bissingen.