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Bissingen vs Neckarsulmer SU — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Bissingen
Bissingen
CANC
16:30
Neckarsulmer SU
Neckarsulmer SU
5/26/2021Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 38Stadion am Bruchwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Bissingen47%
×Draw23%
Neckarsulmer SU30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bissingen
1.82
Neckarsulmer SU
1.42

Bissingen creates 28% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 42 away

creates per match

Bissingen
1.88
Neckarsulmer SU
1.24

allows per match

Bissingen
1.59
Neckarsulmer SU
1.76

finishing

Bissingen+0.00on par
Neckarsulmer SU+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bissingen ↓

Neckarsulmer SU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bissingen or draw
70%
Bissingen or Neckarsulmer SU
77%
Draw or Neckarsulmer SU
53%

Winning margin

Bissingen wins by 2+
26%
Neckarsulmer SU wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bissingen 1+ goals
84%
Bissingen 2+ goals
54%
Bissingen 3+ goals
27%
Neckarsulmer SU 1+ goals
76%
Neckarsulmer SU 2+ goals
41%
Neckarsulmer SU 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bissingen (draw refunded)
61%
Neckarsulmer SU (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bissingen at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

Neckarsulmer SU away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bissingen attack 1.88 + Neckarsulmer SU defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.82

Neckarsulmer SU attack 1.24 + Bissingen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bissingen scores more
47%
level
23%
Neckarsulmer SU scores more
30%

Bissingen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bissingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bissingen host Neckarsulmer SU

May 26, 2021: Bissingen take on Neckarsulmer SU in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bissingen host Neckarsulmer SU at Stadion am Bruchwald.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.