Bissingen 3–1 Fellbach: Result & Stats

Bissingen

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Fellbach

S. Neupert 85'

M. Stuber 41'

N. Dobros 32' (pen)

M. Sanyang 22' (pen)

5/24/2025

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 33Waldstrasse Kunstrasenplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bissingen57%

×Draw20%

Fellbach23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BissingenExpected goals in this matchFellbach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.42

Bissingen

2.32

Fellbach

1.42

Bissingen creates 63% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 17 away

1.88

creates per match

1.24

1.59

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Bissingen

1.88

Fellbach

1.24

allows per match

Bissingen

1.59

Fellbach

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bissingen+0.00on par

Fellbach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bissingen ↓

Fellbach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Bissingen or draw

77%

Bissingen or Fellbach

80%

Draw or Fellbach

43%

Winning margin

Bissingen wins by 2+

36%

Fellbach wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bissingen 1+ goals

90%

Bissingen 2+ goals

67%

Bissingen 3+ goals

40%

Fellbach 1+ goals

76%

Fellbach 2+ goals

41%

Fellbach 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Bissingen (draw refunded)

71%

Fellbach (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bissingen at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

Fellbach away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bissingen attack 1.88 + Fellbach defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.32

Fellbach attack 1.24 + Bissingen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bissingen scores more

57%

level

20%

Fellbach scores more

23%

Bissingen at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bissingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

M. SanyangPenalty

32'

N. DobrosPenalty

41'

M. Stuber

55'

85'

S. Neupert

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff