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Bissingen vs FC Rielasingen-Arlen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Bissingen
Bissingen
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
J. F. Schmidt 30'
H. Arutunjan 72'
M. Bleise 58'
O. C. Ugondu 45'
N. Malonga 41'
11/5/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 16Stadion am Bruchwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Bissingen51%
×Draw22%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bissingen
2.00
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.43

Bissingen creates 40% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 42 away

creates per match

Bissingen
1.88
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
1.26

allows per match

Bissingen
1.59
FC Rielasingen-Arlen
2.12

finishing

Bissingen+0.00on par
FC Rielasingen-Arlen+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bissingen ↓

FC Rielasingen-Arlen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Bissingen or draw
72%
Bissingen or FC Rielasingen-Arlen
78%
Draw or FC Rielasingen-Arlen
49%

Winning margin

Bissingen wins by 2+
29%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bissingen 1+ goals
86%
Bissingen 2+ goals
59%
Bissingen 3+ goals
32%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 1+ goals
76%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 2+ goals
42%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bissingen (draw refunded)
65%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bissingen at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

FC Rielasingen-Arlen away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.12 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bissingen attack 1.88 + FC Rielasingen-Arlen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.00

FC Rielasingen-Arlen attack 1.26 + Bissingen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bissingen scores more
51%
level
22%
FC Rielasingen-Arlen scores more
28%

Bissingen at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bissingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
J. F. Schmidt
41'
N. Malonga
45'
O. C. Ugondu
58'
M. Bleise
72'
H. Arutunjan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bissingen vs FC Rielasingen-Arlen

FC Rielasingen-Arlen beat Bissingen 4-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 5, 2022.

Goals: J. F. Schmidt (30'), N. Malonga (41'), O. C. Ugondu (45'), M. Bleise (58'), H. Arutunjan (72').

The match was played at Stadion am Bruchwald in Bietigheim-Bissingen.