Bissingen 2–1 Essingen: Result & Stats

Bissingen

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Essingen

4/12/2025

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 27Stadion am Bruchwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bissingen43%

×Draw23%

Essingen33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BissingenExpected goals in this matchEssingen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.47

Bissingen

1.71

Essingen

1.47

Bissingen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 51 away

1.88

creates per match

1.35

1.59

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Bissingen

1.88

Essingen

1.35

allows per match

Bissingen

1.59

Essingen

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bissingen+0.00on par

Essingen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bissingen ↓

Essingen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Bissingen or draw

67%

Bissingen or Essingen

77%

Draw or Essingen

57%

Winning margin

Bissingen wins by 2+

23%

Essingen wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bissingen 1+ goals

82%

Bissingen 2+ goals

51%

Bissingen 3+ goals

24%

Essingen 1+ goals

77%

Essingen 2+ goals

43%

Essingen 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Bissingen (draw refunded)

57%

Essingen (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bissingen at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

Essingen away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.55 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bissingen attack 1.88 + Essingen defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.71

Essingen attack 1.35 + Bissingen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bissingen scores more

43%

level

23%

Essingen scores more

33%

Bissingen at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bissingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff