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Bissingen vs Astoria Walldorf II — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Bissingen
Bissingen
CANC
13:30
Astoria Walldorf II
Astoria Walldorf II
11/14/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 16Stadion am Bruchwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Bissingen48%
×Draw22%
Astoria Walldorf II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bissingen
1.92
Astoria Walldorf II
1.48

Bissingen creates 30% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 25 away

creates per match

Bissingen
1.88
Astoria Walldorf II
1.36

allows per match

Bissingen
1.59
Astoria Walldorf II
1.96

finishing

Bissingen+0.00on par
Astoria Walldorf II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bissingen ↓

Astoria Walldorf II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bissingen or draw
70%
Bissingen or Astoria Walldorf II
78%
Draw or Astoria Walldorf II
52%

Winning margin

Bissingen wins by 2+
27%
Astoria Walldorf II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bissingen 1+ goals
85%
Bissingen 2+ goals
57%
Bissingen 3+ goals
30%
Astoria Walldorf II 1+ goals
77%
Astoria Walldorf II 2+ goals
43%
Astoria Walldorf II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Bissingen (draw refunded)
62%
Astoria Walldorf II (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bissingen at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

Astoria Walldorf II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.96 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bissingen attack 1.88 + Astoria Walldorf II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.92

Astoria Walldorf II attack 1.36 + Bissingen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bissingen scores more
48%
level
22%
Astoria Walldorf II scores more
30%

Bissingen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bissingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bissingen vs Astoria Walldorf II — Match Preview

Bissingen face Astoria Walldorf II on November 14, 2020 in this Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bissingen host Astoria Walldorf II at Stadion am Bruchwald.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.