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Bisha vs Al Orubah — Division 1 2018

Bisha
Bisha
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Al Orubah
Al Orubah
1/12/2022Division 1Division 1 · Round 19King Saud Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bisha28%
×Draw27%
Al Orubah46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bisha
1.04
Al Orubah
1.42

Al Orubah creates 37% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 71 away

creates per match

Bisha
0.79
Al Orubah
1.46

allows per match

Bisha
1.37
Al Orubah
1.30

finishing

Bisha+0.00on par
Al Orubah+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bisha ↓

Al Orubah →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bisha or draw
54%
Bisha or Al Orubah
73%
Draw or Al Orubah
72%

Winning margin

Bisha wins by 2+
10%
Al Orubah wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Bisha 1+ goals
65%
Bisha 2+ goals
28%
Bisha 3+ goals
9%
Al Orubah 1+ goals
76%
Al Orubah 2+ goals
41%
Al Orubah 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Bisha (draw refunded)
38%
Al Orubah (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bisha at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Al Orubah away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.30 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bisha attack 0.79 + Al Orubah defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.04

Al Orubah attack 1.46 + Bisha defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bisha scores more
28%
level
27%
Al Orubah scores more
46%

Al Orubah at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Al Orubah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Bisha 0–2 Al Orubah

Al Orubah beat Bisha 2-0 in Division 1 on January 12, 2022.

The match was played at King Saud Sport City Stadium in Al Bahah.