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Bisha vs Al-Ain — Division 1 2018

Bisha
Bisha
FT
3 – 0
Al-Ain
Al-Ain
9/7/2021Division 1Division 1 · Round 1King Saud Sport City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Bisha33%
×Draw29%
Al-Ain38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bisha
1.05
Al-Ain
1.15

Al-Ain creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 89 away

creates per match

Bisha
0.79
Al-Ain
0.92

allows per match

Bisha
1.37
Al-Ain
1.31

finishing

Bisha+0.00on par
Al-Ain+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bisha ↓

Al-Ain →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bisha or draw
62%
Bisha or Al-Ain
71%
Draw or Al-Ain
67%

Winning margin

Bisha wins by 2+
13%
Al-Ain wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bisha 1+ goals
65%
Bisha 2+ goals
28%
Bisha 3+ goals
9%
Al-Ain 1+ goals
68%
Al-Ain 2+ goals
32%
Al-Ain 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bisha (draw refunded)
46%
Al-Ain (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bisha at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Al-Ain away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.31 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bisha attack 0.79 + Al-Ain defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.05

Al-Ain attack 0.92 + Bisha defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bisha scores more
33%
level
29%
Al-Ain scores more
38%

Al-Ain at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al-Ain will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 1: Bisha 3–0 Al-Ain

Bisha beat Al-Ain 3-0 in Division 1 on September 7, 2021.

The match was played at King Saud Sport City Stadium in Al Bahah.