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Bischofswerdaer FV vs Westerhausen — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Bischofswerdaer FV
Bischofswerdaer FV
FT
3 – 1
Westerhausen
Westerhausen
4/8/2023Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 18Volksbank Arena Bischofswerda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bischofswerdaer FV65%
×Draw19%
Westerhausen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bischofswerdaer FV
2.23
Westerhausen
0.99

Bischofswerdaer FV creates 125% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bischofswerdaer FV
1.87
Westerhausen
0.76

allows per match

Bischofswerdaer FV
1.23
Westerhausen
2.59

finishing

Bischofswerdaer FV+0.00on par
Westerhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bischofswerdaer FV ↓

Westerhausen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bischofswerdaer FV or draw
84%
Bischofswerdaer FV or Westerhausen
81%
Draw or Westerhausen
35%

Winning margin

Bischofswerdaer FV wins by 2+
42%
Westerhausen wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bischofswerdaer FV 1+ goals
89%
Bischofswerdaer FV 2+ goals
65%
Bischofswerdaer FV 3+ goals
38%
Westerhausen 1+ goals
63%
Westerhausen 2+ goals
26%
Westerhausen 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bischofswerdaer FV (draw refunded)
81%
Westerhausen (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bischofswerdaer FV at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

Westerhausen away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bischofswerdaer FV attack 1.87 + Westerhausen defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.23

Westerhausen attack 0.76 + Bischofswerdaer FV defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Bischofswerdaer FV scores more
65%
level
19%
Westerhausen scores more
16%

Bischofswerdaer FV at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Bischofswerdaer FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Bischofswerdaer FV 3–1 Westerhausen

Bischofswerdaer FV beat Westerhausen 3-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Volksbank Arena Bischofswerda in Bischofswerda.