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Bischofswerdaer FV vs Ludwigsfelde — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Bischofswerdaer FV
Bischofswerdaer FV
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ludwigsfelde
Ludwigsfelde
3/16/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 21Volksbank Arena Bischofswerda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Bischofswerdaer FV57%
×Draw22%
Ludwigsfelde21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bischofswerdaer FV
1.92
Ludwigsfelde
1.09

Bischofswerdaer FV creates 76% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 50 away

creates per match

Bischofswerdaer FV
1.87
Ludwigsfelde
0.96

allows per match

Bischofswerdaer FV
1.23
Ludwigsfelde
1.96

finishing

Bischofswerdaer FV+0.00on par
Ludwigsfelde+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bischofswerdaer FV ↓

Ludwigsfelde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bischofswerdaer FV or draw
79%
Bischofswerdaer FV or Ludwigsfelde
78%
Draw or Ludwigsfelde
43%

Winning margin

Bischofswerdaer FV wins by 2+
33%
Ludwigsfelde wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bischofswerdaer FV 1+ goals
85%
Bischofswerdaer FV 2+ goals
57%
Bischofswerdaer FV 3+ goals
30%
Ludwigsfelde 1+ goals
66%
Ludwigsfelde 2+ goals
30%
Ludwigsfelde 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bischofswerdaer FV (draw refunded)
73%
Ludwigsfelde (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bischofswerdaer FV at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

Ludwigsfelde away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.96 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bischofswerdaer FV attack 1.87 + Ludwigsfelde defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.92

Ludwigsfelde attack 0.96 + Bischofswerdaer FV defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bischofswerdaer FV scores more
57%
level
22%
Ludwigsfelde scores more
21%

Bischofswerdaer FV at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bischofswerdaer FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd: Bischofswerdaer FV 2–1 Ludwigsfelde

Bischofswerdaer FV beat Ludwigsfelde 2-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Volksbank Arena Bischofswerda in Bischofswerda.