Bischofswerdaer FV 5–0 Einheit Wernigerode

Bischofswerdaer FV

FT

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Einheit Wernigerode

3/2/2024

Oberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 19LaOla-Bolzplatz Bischofswerda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Bischofswerdaer FV54%

×Draw21%

Einheit Wernigerode24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bischofswerdaer FVExpected goals in this matchEinheit Wernigerode

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.31

Bischofswerdaer FV

2.04

Einheit Wernigerode

1.31

Bischofswerdaer FV creates 56% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 77 away

1.87

creates per match

1.39

1.23

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Bischofswerdaer FV

1.87

Einheit Wernigerode

1.39

allows per match

Bischofswerdaer FV

1.23

Einheit Wernigerode

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bischofswerdaer FV+0.00on par

Einheit Wernigerode+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bischofswerdaer FV ↓

Einheit Wernigerode →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bischofswerdaer FV or draw

76%

Bischofswerdaer FV or Einheit Wernigerode

79%

Draw or Einheit Wernigerode

46%

Winning margin

Bischofswerdaer FV wins by 2+

32%

Einheit Wernigerode wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bischofswerdaer FV 1+ goals

87%

Bischofswerdaer FV 2+ goals

60%

Bischofswerdaer FV 3+ goals

33%

Einheit Wernigerode 1+ goals

73%

Einheit Wernigerode 2+ goals

38%

Einheit Wernigerode 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bischofswerdaer FV (draw refunded)

69%

Einheit Wernigerode (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bischofswerdaer FV at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

Einheit Wernigerode away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.21 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bischofswerdaer FV attack 1.87 + Einheit Wernigerode defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.04

Einheit Wernigerode attack 1.39 + Bischofswerdaer FV defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bischofswerdaer FV scores more

54%

level

21%

Einheit Wernigerode scores more

24%

Bischofswerdaer FV at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bischofswerdaer FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff