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Bischofswerdaer FV vs Blau-Weiß Zorbau — Oberliga - Nordost-Süd 2020

Bischofswerdaer FV
Bischofswerdaer FV
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Blau-Weiß Zorbau
Blau-Weiß Zorbau
10/12/2024Oberliga - Nordost-SüdOberliga - Nordost-Süd · Nordost-Süd - 5Volksbank Arena Bischofswerda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Bischofswerdaer FV55%
×Draw21%
Blau-Weiß Zorbau23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bischofswerdaer FV
2.08
Blau-Weiß Zorbau
1.29

Bischofswerdaer FV creates 61% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 53 away

creates per match

Bischofswerdaer FV
1.87
Blau-Weiß Zorbau
1.36

allows per match

Bischofswerdaer FV
1.23
Blau-Weiß Zorbau
2.30

finishing

Bischofswerdaer FV+0.00on par
Blau-Weiß Zorbau+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bischofswerdaer FV ↓

Blau-Weiß Zorbau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bischofswerdaer FV or draw
77%
Bischofswerdaer FV or Blau-Weiß Zorbau
79%
Draw or Blau-Weiß Zorbau
45%

Winning margin

Bischofswerdaer FV wins by 2+
33%
Blau-Weiß Zorbau wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bischofswerdaer FV 1+ goals
87%
Bischofswerdaer FV 2+ goals
61%
Bischofswerdaer FV 3+ goals
34%
Blau-Weiß Zorbau 1+ goals
72%
Blau-Weiß Zorbau 2+ goals
37%
Blau-Weiß Zorbau 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bischofswerdaer FV (draw refunded)
70%
Blau-Weiß Zorbau (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bischofswerdaer FV at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.23 · 78 matches

Blau-Weiß Zorbau away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bischofswerdaer FV attack 1.87 + Blau-Weiß Zorbau defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.08

Blau-Weiß Zorbau attack 1.36 + Bischofswerdaer FV defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Bischofswerdaer FV scores more
55%
level
21%
Blau-Weiß Zorbau scores more
23%

Bischofswerdaer FV at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Bischofswerdaer FV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bischofswerdaer FV vs Blau-Weiß Zorbau

Bischofswerdaer FV and Blau-Weiß Zorbau drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Nordost-Süd on October 12, 2024.

The match was played at Volksbank Arena Bischofswerda in Bischofswerda.