Bischofshofen 1–1 Schwaz: Result & Stats

Bischofshofen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Schwaz

M. Khalil 81' (pen)

B. Schmiederer 69'

5/24/2024

Regionalliga - West · West - 27Sportplatz Bischofshofen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Bischofshofen46%

×Draw23%

Schwaz31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BischofshofenExpected goals in this matchSchwaz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.48

Bischofshofen

1.83

Schwaz

1.48

Bischofshofen creates 24% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 64 away

2.03

creates per match

1.22

1.73

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Bischofshofen

2.03

Schwaz

1.22

allows per match

Bischofshofen

1.73

Schwaz

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bischofshofen+0.00on par

Schwaz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bischofshofen ↓

Schwaz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Bischofshofen or draw

69%

Bischofshofen or Schwaz

77%

Draw or Schwaz

54%

Winning margin

Bischofshofen wins by 2+

25%

Schwaz wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bischofshofen 1+ goals

84%

Bischofshofen 2+ goals

54%

Bischofshofen 3+ goals

28%

Schwaz 1+ goals

77%

Schwaz 2+ goals

43%

Schwaz 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Bischofshofen (draw refunded)

59%

Schwaz (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bischofshofen at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.73 · 59 matches

Schwaz away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.63 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bischofshofen attack 2.03 + Schwaz defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.83

Schwaz attack 1.22 + Bischofshofen defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bischofshofen scores more

46%

level

23%

Schwaz scores more

31%

Bischofshofen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bischofshofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

P. Irsch← C. Chukwurah

31'

D. Veskovic← F. Tipotsch

65'

B. Schmiederer← M. Schmadl

65'

E. Gruber← M. Knoflach

69'

B. Schmiederer

79'

Khery Hamka← H. Famuditimi

79'

M. Danzl← E. Dornauer

81'

M. KhalilPenalty

Bischofshofen

Schwaz

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: T. Schnöll

12'▲P. Irsch←▼C. Chukwurah

79'▲Khery Hamka←▼H. Famuditimi

Bischofshofen substitutes

IrschHamkaCzifrikNagyEbbingKálazi

Manager: T. Löffler

31'▲D. Veskovic←▼F. Tipotsch

65'▲B. Schmiederer←▼M. Schmadl

65'▲E. Gruber←▼M. Knoflach

79'▲M. Danzl←▼E. Dornauer

Schwaz substitutes

VeskovicSchmiedererGruberDanzlHechenblaikner