Birmingham 1–2 Wycombe: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Wycombe

M. Roberts 40'

K. Pedersen 90+2' (OG)

S. Kashket 75'

11/4/2020

Championship · Round 10St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Birmingham46%

×Draw26%

Wycombe28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchWycombe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.13

Birmingham

1.52

Wycombe

1.13

Birmingham creates 35% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 23 away

1.25

creates per match

0.96

1.29

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Birmingham

1.25

Wycombe

0.96

allows per match

Birmingham

1.29

Wycombe

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Wycombe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Wycombe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

72%

Birmingham or Wycombe

74%

Draw or Wycombe

54%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

23%

Wycombe wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

78%

Birmingham 2+ goals

45%

Birmingham 3+ goals

20%

Wycombe 1+ goals

68%

Wycombe 2+ goals

31%

Wycombe 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

62%

Wycombe (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 175 matches

Wycombe away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.25 + Wycombe defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Wycombe attack 0.96 + Birmingham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Birmingham scores more

46%

level

26%

Wycombe scores more

28%

Birmingham at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

M. Roberts

Birmingham · D

7.5

Match Events

40'

M. Roberts↳ Jérémie Bela

64'

R. McGree← G. Gardner

64'

A. Mehmeti← D. Adeniran

64'

F. Onyedinma← D. Wheeler

69'

Ivan Šunjić

75'

S. Kashket↳ F. Onyedinma

79'

J. Leko← Iván Sánchez

90+2'

K. PedersenOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamWycombe

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots13

7Corners5

12Fouls7

Shots

17Total Shots13

4On Target3

8Off Target4

5Blocked6

15Inside Box11

2Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

384Total Passes324

240Accurate Passes182

63%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2