Birmingham 2–0 West Brom: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

West Brom

K. Bielik 52'

H. Mejbri 10'

2/10/2023

Championship · Round 31St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

Birmingham45%

×Draw27%

West Brom28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.06

Birmingham

1.42

West Brom

1.06

Birmingham creates 34% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 54 away

1.62

creates per match

1.14

0.99

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Birmingham

1.62

West Brom

1.14

allows per match

Birmingham

0.99

West Brom

1.22

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Birmingham-0.06on par

West Brom-0.05on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

72%

Birmingham or West Brom

73%

Draw or West Brom

55%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

22%

West Brom wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

76%

Birmingham 2+ goals

41%

Birmingham 3+ goals

17%

West Brom 1+ goals

65%

West Brom 2+ goals

29%

West Brom 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

62%

West Brom (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.99 · 32 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.22 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + West Brom defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.42

West Brom attack 1.14 + Birmingham defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Birmingham scores more

45%

level

27%

West Brom scores more

28%

Birmingham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

H. Mejbri

Birmingham · M

8.2

Match Events

10'

45+4'

45'

45+4'

52'

55'

J. Swift← M. Albrighton

55'

N. Chalobah← G. Diangana

55'

B. Thomas-Asante← O. Yokuşlu

64'

Lukas Jutkiewicz

64'

G. Gardner← L. Jutkiewicz

68'

K. Ahearne-Grant← D. Dike

68'

A. Reach← C. Townsend

71'

86'

86'

90+5'

90+2'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamWest

Overview

32%Possession68%

12Total Shots5

5Corners6

12Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots5

4On Target1

5Off Target3

3Blocked1

6Inside Box2

6Outside Box3

Passing

32%Possession68%

239Total Passes521

146Accurate Passes418

61%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls7

3Yellow Cards3