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Birmingham vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
West Brom
West Brom
9/14/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7St. Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Birmingham46%
×Draw26%
West Brom28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.50
West Brom
1.10

Birmingham creates 36% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 40 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.78
West Brom
1.19

allows per match

Birmingham
1.01
West Brom
1.21

finishing

Birmingham-0.05on par
West Brom-0.06on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
72%
Birmingham or West Brom
74%
Draw or West Brom
54%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
23%
West Brom wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
78%
Birmingham 2+ goals
44%
Birmingham 3+ goals
19%
West Brom 1+ goals
67%
West Brom 2+ goals
30%
West Brom 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
63%
West Brom (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.01 · 11 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.78 + West Brom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.50

West Brom attack 1.19 + Birmingham defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Birmingham scores more
46%
level
26%
West Brom scores more
28%

Birmingham at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Birmingham vs West Brom

Birmingham and West Brom drew 1-1 in Championship on September 14, 2018.

The match was played at St. Andrew's Stadium in Birmingham.