Birmingham 2–1 Stevenage: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stevenage

Paik Seung-Ho 47'

K. Dowell 27' (pen)

J. Young 90+4'

3/11/2025

League One · Round 16St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Birmingham59%

×Draw25%

Stevenage16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchStevenage

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.71

Birmingham

1.60

Stevenage

0.71

Birmingham creates 125% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 76 away

2.04

creates per match

0.95

0.48

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Birmingham

2.04

Stevenage

0.95

allows per match

Birmingham

0.48

Stevenage

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Stevenage+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Stevenage →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

84%

Birmingham or Stevenage

75%

Draw or Stevenage

41%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

32%

Stevenage wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

80%

Birmingham 2+ goals

47%

Birmingham 3+ goals

22%

Stevenage 1+ goals

51%

Stevenage 2+ goals

16%

Stevenage 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

78%

Stevenage (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.48 · 23 matches

Stevenage away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.16 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 2.04 + Stevenage defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.60

Stevenage attack 0.95 + Birmingham defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Birmingham scores more

59%

level

25%

Stevenage scores more

16%

Birmingham at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Paik Seung-Ho

Birmingham · M

7.9

Match Events

27'

K. DowellPenalty

46'

A. May← E. Hansson

47'

Paik Seung-Ho↳ A. May

61'

63'

64'

66'

66'

E. List← E. King

69'

K. Anderson← J. Stansfield

70'

K. Bielik← A. Sampsted

76'

H. White← L. Thompson

84'

D. Sweeney← C. Piergianni

84'

J. Young← J. Reid

90'

Alex Cochrane

90'

Ryan Allsop

90'

Daniel Phillips

90+4'

G. Hanley← A. May

90+4'

J. Young

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamStevenage

Overview

73%Possession27%

10Total Shots11

8Corners4

12Fouls7

Shots

10Total Shots11

2On Target4

6Off Target3

2Blocked4

8Inside Box4

2Outside Box7

Passing

73%Possession27%

599Total Passes217

505Accurate Passes132

84%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls7

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2