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Birmingham vs Southampton — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
Preview
18:45
Southampton
Southampton
9/1/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 4
Big match
42%
Birmingham
model favours
42%25%32%

Southampton score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Birmingham42%
×Draw25%
Southampton32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.48
Southampton
1.25

Birmingham creates 18% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 44 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.62
Southampton
1.54

allows per match

Birmingham
0.97
Southampton
1.33

finishing

Birmingham-0.07on par
Southampton+0.05on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
68%
Birmingham or Southampton
75%
Draw or Southampton
58%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
21%
Southampton wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
77%
Birmingham 2+ goals
43%
Birmingham 3+ goals
19%
Southampton 1+ goals
71%
Southampton 2+ goals
36%
Southampton 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
57%
Southampton (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

Southampton away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.33 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + Southampton defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Southampton attack 1.54 + Birmingham defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Birmingham scores more
42%
level
25%
Southampton scores more
32%

Birmingham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Birmingham have won 5 in a row
  • Birmingham are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Southampton have scored in 13 games running
  • 82% of Southampton’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 88% of Southampton’s matches
  • Birmingham have scored in 7 games running

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Birmingham
Balanced
Southampton
Possession-dominant
46%PossessionBiggest gap60%
69%Pass accuracy86%
11.9Shots14.4
1.27xG1.66
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BirminghamSouthampton

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

0
Birmingham
2
Draws
4
Southampton
Avg goals: 3.7BTTS: 83%
1–11–33–41–30–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Birmingham
WWWDW
Southampton
WDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birmingham face Southampton (Championship)

Championship returns with Birmingham hosting Southampton. Match starts September 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.