Birmingham 1–3 Reading: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Reading

S. Hogan 6'

Pelé 87'

Y. Meïté 56'

M. Miazga 51'

3/7/2020

Championship · Round 37St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Birmingham42%

×Draw27%

Reading31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.14

Birmingham

1.37

Reading

1.14

Birmingham creates 20% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 112 away

1.25

creates per match

0.99

1.29

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Birmingham

1.25

Reading

0.99

allows per match

Birmingham

1.29

Reading

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

69%

Birmingham or Reading

73%

Draw or Reading

58%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

20%

Reading wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

75%

Birmingham 2+ goals

40%

Birmingham 3+ goals

16%

Reading 1+ goals

68%

Reading 2+ goals

32%

Reading 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

57%

Reading (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 175 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.25 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.37

Reading attack 0.99 + Birmingham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Birmingham scores more

42%

level

27%

Reading scores more

31%

Birmingham at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

Pelé

Reading · M

7.7

Match Events

6'

S. Hogan

51'

M. Miazga↳ A. Rinomhota

55'

56'

69'

72'

72'

K. Mrabti← J. Bellingham

72'

Pelé← O. Ejaria

73'

G. McCleary← M. Olise

81'

L. Moore← J. Swift

84'

M. Kieftenbeld← I. Šunjić

87'

Pelé↳ G. McCleary

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamReading

Overview

50%Possession50%

18Total Shots9

4Corners2

14Fouls7

Shots

18Total Shots9

3On Target4

6Off Target3

9Blocked2

11Inside Box8

7Outside Box1

Passing

50%Possession50%

371Total Passes380

246Accurate Passes253

66%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2