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Birmingham vs Preston — Championship 2025

Birmingham
Birmingham
Preview
18:45
Preston
Preston
10/13/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 10
Big match
47%
Birmingham
model favours
47%24%28%

Preston score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Birmingham47%
×Draw24%
Preston28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.64
Preston
1.21

Birmingham creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.78
Preston
1.12

allows per match

Birmingham
1.29
Preston
1.50

finishing

Birmingham-0.61scores less
Preston+0.08on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Preston →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
72%
Birmingham or Preston
76%
Draw or Preston
53%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
25%
Preston wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
81%
Birmingham 2+ goals
49%
Birmingham 3+ goals
23%
Preston 1+ goals
70%
Preston 2+ goals
34%
Preston 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
63%
Preston (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.29 · 6 matches

Preston away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.50 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.78 + Preston defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.64

Preston attack 1.12 + Birmingham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Birmingham scores more
47%
level
24%
Preston scores more
28%

Birmingham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 76% of Preston’s matches
  • Preston win just 21% of their away games
  • Birmingham fall short of their xG (0.7 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Birmingham
Balanced
Preston
Balanced
47%Possession45%
72%Pass accuracy71%
10.8Shots10.3
1.29xGBiggest gap1.05
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BirminghamPreston

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Birmingham
0
Draws
2
Preston
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 60%
2–11–01–01–21–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Birmingham
WWDWW
Preston
WLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birmingham face Preston (Championship)

Championship returns with Birmingham hosting Preston. Match starts October 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.