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Birmingham vs Portsmouth — Championship 2024

Birmingham
Birmingham
Preview
15:00
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
1/1/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 25
Big match
50%
Birmingham
model favours
50%26%24%
1–0
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Birmingham50%
×Draw26%
Portsmouth24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.54
Portsmouth
0.98

Birmingham creates 57% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.64
Portsmouth
0.86

allows per match

Birmingham
1.09
Portsmouth
1.45

finishing

Birmingham-0.14scores less
Portsmouth+0.27scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
76%
Birmingham or Portsmouth
74%
Draw or Portsmouth
50%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
26%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
79%
Birmingham 2+ goals
45%
Birmingham 3+ goals
20%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
62%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
26%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
68%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.45 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.64 + Portsmouth defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.54

Portsmouth attack 0.86 + Birmingham defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Birmingham scores more
50%
level
26%
Portsmouth scores more
24%

Birmingham at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Birmingham
Balanced
Portsmouth
Balanced
47%Possession47%
72%Pass accuracy72%
11.1ShotsBiggest gap12.1
1.17xG1.17
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BirminghamPortsmouth

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Birmingham
1
Draws
2
Portsmouth
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 40%
1–14–00–31–41–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Birmingham
WWDWW
Portsmouth
LWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birmingham face Portsmouth (Championship)

Championship returns with Birmingham hosting Portsmouth. Match starts January 1, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.