Birmingham 0–0 Millwall: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Millwall

11/2/2022

Championship · Round 19St Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Birmingham47%

×Draw26%

Millwall27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.04

Birmingham

1.47

Millwall

1.04

Birmingham creates 41% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 62 away

1.62

creates per match

1.12

0.97

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Birmingham

1.62

Millwall

1.12

allows per match

Birmingham

0.97

Millwall

1.32

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Birmingham-0.07on par

Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

73%

Birmingham or Millwall

74%

Draw or Millwall

53%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

23%

Millwall wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

77%

Birmingham 2+ goals

43%

Birmingham 3+ goals

18%

Millwall 1+ goals

65%

Millwall 2+ goals

28%

Millwall 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

64%

Millwall (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + Millwall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.47

Millwall attack 1.12 + Birmingham defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Birmingham scores more

47%

level

26%

Millwall scores more

27%

Birmingham at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

J. Ruddy

Birmingham · G

7.5

Match Events

51'

Murray Wallace

57'

J. Bacuna← T. Chong

68'

T. Burey← M. Bennett

78'

L. Jutkiewicz← T. Deeney

78'

G. Hall← H. Mejbri

85'

C. Styles← G. Honeyman

85'

T. Bradshaw← A. Voglsammer

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamMillwall

Overview

47%Possession53%

5Total Shots9

2Corners5

10Fouls11

Shots

5Total Shots9

0On Target3

3Off Target2

2Blocked4

3Inside Box2

2Outside Box7

Passing

47%Possession53%

339Total Passes377

224Accurate Passes249

66%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4