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Birmingham vs Middlesbrough — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
Preview
14:00
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
9/19/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8
Big match
43%
Birmingham
model favours
43%26%31%

Birmingham have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Birmingham43%
×Draw26%
Middlesbrough31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.43
Middlesbrough
1.18

Birmingham creates 21% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 65 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.62
Middlesbrough
1.39

allows per match

Birmingham
0.97
Middlesbrough
1.24

finishing

Birmingham-0.07on par
Middlesbrough+0.16scores more

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Middlesbrough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
69%
Birmingham or Middlesbrough
74%
Draw or Middlesbrough
57%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
20%
Middlesbrough wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
76%
Birmingham 2+ goals
42%
Birmingham 3+ goals
17%
Middlesbrough 1+ goals
69%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
33%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
58%
Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.97 · 33 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.24 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.62 + Middlesbrough defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.43

Middlesbrough attack 1.39 + Birmingham defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Birmingham scores more
43%
level
26%
Middlesbrough scores more
31%

Birmingham at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Birmingham are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Birmingham have scored in 7 games running
  • Middlesbrough have won 8 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Birmingham
Balanced
Middlesbrough
Attack-heavy
46%PossessionBiggest gap54%
69%Pass accuracy79%
11.9Shots13.6
1.27xG1.46
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BirminghamMiddlesbrough

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Birmingham
0
Draws
8
Middlesbrough
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 40%
1–31–20–10–11–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Birmingham
WWWDW
Middlesbrough
DLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birmingham face Middlesbrough (Championship)

Championship returns with Birmingham hosting Middlesbrough. Match starts September 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.