Birmingham 1–0 Exeter City: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Exeter City

E. Laird 45+2'

1/18/2025

League One · Round 27St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Birmingham62%

×Draw22%

Exeter City15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchExeter City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.77

Birmingham

1.81

Exeter City

0.77

Birmingham creates 135% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 96 away

2.04

creates per match

1.06

0.48

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Birmingham

2.04

Exeter City

1.06

allows per match

Birmingham

0.48

Exeter City

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Exeter City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Exeter City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

85%

Birmingham or Exeter City

78%

Draw or Exeter City

38%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

36%

Exeter City wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

84%

Birmingham 2+ goals

54%

Birmingham 3+ goals

27%

Exeter City 1+ goals

54%

Exeter City 2+ goals

18%

Exeter City 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

80%

Exeter City (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.48 · 23 matches

Exeter City away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.58 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 2.04 + Exeter City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.81

Exeter City attack 1.06 + Birmingham defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Birmingham scores more

62%

level

22%

Exeter City scores more

15%

Birmingham at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

E. Laird

Birmingham · D

7.9

Match Events

12'

34'

36'

45+1'

45+2'

E. Laird↳ A. May

52'

Caleb Watts

61'

J. Magennis← J. Richards

61'

J. Colwill← K. McDonald

62'

A. Yokoyama← J. Stansfield

63'

L. Dykes← S. Wright

69'

Vincent Harper

73'

J. Aitchison← M. Alli

73'

P. Jones← D. Mitchell

85'

K. Bielik← A. May

90+13'

Jack McMillan

90+13'

Jack McMillan

90+5'

I. Niskanen← V. Harper

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamExeter

Overview

59%Possession41%

11Total Shots0

7Corners1

15Fouls21

Shots

11Total Shots0

3On Target0

2Off Target0

6Blocked0

7Inside Box0

4Outside Box0

Passing

59%Possession41%

493Total Passes355

401Accurate Passes266

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls21

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0