Birmingham 0–0 Crawley Town: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Crawley Town

4/18/2025

League One · Round 43St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Birmingham67%

×Draw20%

Crawley Town13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchCrawley Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

0.79

Birmingham

2.07

Crawley Town

0.79

Birmingham creates 162% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 31 away

2.04

creates per match

1.10

0.48

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Birmingham

2.04

Crawley Town

1.10

allows per match

Birmingham

0.48

Crawley Town

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Crawley Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

87%

Birmingham or Crawley Town

80%

Draw or Crawley Town

33%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

42%

Crawley Town wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

87%

Birmingham 2+ goals

61%

Birmingham 3+ goals

34%

Crawley Town 1+ goals

55%

Crawley Town 2+ goals

19%

Crawley Town 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

83%

Crawley Town (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.48 · 23 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.10 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 2.04 + Crawley Town defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.07

Crawley Town attack 1.10 + Birmingham defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Birmingham scores more

67%

level

20%

Crawley Town scores more

13%

Birmingham at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

C. Klarer

Birmingham · D

7.6

Match Events

23'

Charlie Barker

56'

M. Leonard← T. Iwata

56'

L. Harris← W. Willumsson

62'

G. Holohan← K. Doyle

70'

T. Gardner-Hickman← E. Laird

70'

Lee Myung-Jae← A. Cochrane

73'

M. Anderson← Panutche Camará

75'

Jay Stansfield

75'

Bradley Ibrahim

81'

Luke Harris

82'

L. Jutkiewicz← A. May

90+1'

A. Papadopoulos← J. Roles

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamCrawley

Overview

59%Possession41%

13Total Shots5

6Corners4

6Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots5

3On Target2

7Off Target3

3Blocked0

11Inside Box4

2Outside Box1

Passing

59%Possession41%

514Total Passes355

427Accurate Passes271

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3