Birmingham 2–0 Burton Albion: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Burton Albion

M. Crocombe 56' (OG)

J. Stansfield 26' (pen)

12/26/2024

League One · Round 22St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Birmingham62%

×Draw22%

Burton Albion15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchBurton Albion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.77

Birmingham

1.81

Burton Albion

0.77

Birmingham creates 135% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 176 away

2.04

creates per match

1.06

0.48

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Birmingham

2.04

Burton Albion

1.06

allows per match

Birmingham

0.48

Burton Albion

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Burton Albion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

85%

Birmingham or Burton Albion

78%

Draw or Burton Albion

38%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

36%

Burton Albion wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

84%

Birmingham 2+ goals

54%

Birmingham 3+ goals

27%

Burton Albion 1+ goals

54%

Burton Albion 2+ goals

18%

Burton Albion 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

80%

Burton Albion (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.48 · 23 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 176 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 2.04 + Burton Albion defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.81

Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Birmingham defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Birmingham scores more

62%

level

22%

Burton Albion scores more

15%

Birmingham at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

K. Bielik

Birmingham · D

8.0

Match Events

26'

J. StansfieldPenalty

45+1'

Udoka Godwin-Malife

46'

E. Hansson← K. Anderson

48'

Max Crocombe

50'

D. Orsi← M. Bennett

56'

M. CrocombeOwn goal

67'

T. Kalinauskas← R. Burrell

67'

C. Webster← K. Chauke

67'

B. Whitfield← C. Gilligan

68'

A. May← L. Dykes

68'

Paik Seung-Ho← M. Leonard

80'

L. Harris← J. Stansfield

89'

T. Gardner-Hickman← W. Willumsson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamBurton

Overview

78%Possession22%

12Total Shots2

8Corners0

4Fouls6

Shots

12Total Shots2

2On Target0

5Off Target2

5Blocked0

8Inside Box2

4Outside Box0

Passing

78%Possession22%

776Total Passes207

682Accurate Passes117

88%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

4Fouls6

0Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0