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Birmingham vs Burnley — Championship 2025

Birmingham
Birmingham
Preview
11:30
Burnley
Burnley
5/1/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 46
37%
Burnley
model favours
33%30%37%

Even after scoring first, Burnley win only 27%

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Birmingham33%
×Draw30%
Burnley37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
0.99
Burnley
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 10 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.58
Burnley
1.10

allows per match

Birmingham
1.04
Burnley
0.40

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par
Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
63%
Birmingham or Burnley
70%
Draw or Burnley
67%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
12%
Burnley wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
63%
Birmingham 2+ goals
26%
Birmingham 3+ goals
8%
Burnley 1+ goals
66%
Burnley 2+ goals
29%
Burnley 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
47%
Burnley (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.04 · 26 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.10, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.58 + Burnley defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.99

Burnley attack 1.10 + Birmingham defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Birmingham scores more
33%
level
30%
Burnley scores more
37%

Burnley at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Burnley score first in only 27% of matches
  • Burnley win just 9% of their away games
  • Birmingham and Burnley have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Birmingham
WWDWW
Burnley
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birmingham face Burnley (Championship)

Championship returns with Birmingham hosting Burnley. Match starts May 1, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.