Birmingham 2–0 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Birmingham

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Bristol Rovers

J. Stansfield 38' (pen)

L. Buchanan 6'

12/14/2024

League One · Round 20St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Birmingham64%

×Draw22%

Bristol Rovers14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BirminghamExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.71

Birmingham

1.82

Bristol Rovers

0.71

Birmingham creates 156% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 131 away

2.04

creates per match

0.95

0.48

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Birmingham

2.04

Bristol Rovers

0.95

allows per match

Birmingham

0.48

Bristol Rovers

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw

86%

Birmingham or Bristol Rovers

78%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

36%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+

38%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals

84%

Birmingham 2+ goals

54%

Birmingham 3+ goals

27%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

51%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

16%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)

82%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 2.04, concedes 0.48 · 23 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.60 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 2.04 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.82

Bristol Rovers attack 0.95 + Birmingham defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Birmingham scores more

64%

level

22%

Bristol Rovers scores more

14%

Birmingham at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Birmingham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

K. Anderson

Birmingham · M

8.2

Match Events

6'

L. Buchanan

38'

J. StansfieldPenalty

52'

C. Martin← M. Forbes

66'

T. Moore← J. Senior

66'

G. Ward← J. Lindsay

67'

E. Laird← L. Buchanan

67'

I. Hutchinson← G. ODonkor

73'

P. Omochere← L. McCormick

78'

L. Harris← J. Stansfield

79'

L. Jutkiewicz← A. May

79'

T. Gardner-Hickman← K. Bielik

85'

M. Leonard← K. Anderson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BirminghamBristol

Overview

66%Possession34%

26Total Shots3

8Corners0

7Fouls9

Shots

26Total Shots3

8On Target1

8Off Target2

10Blocked0

18Inside Box1

8Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

638Total Passes329

568Accurate Passes243

89%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls9

4Offsides2