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Birmingham vs Brentford — Championship 2018

Birmingham
Birmingham
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Brentford
Brentford
12/29/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 25St. Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Birmingham33%
×Draw27%
Brentford41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham
1.18
Brentford
1.35

Brentford creates 14% more chances

Season form · 175 home / 70 away

creates per match

Birmingham
1.25
Brentford
1.41

allows per match

Birmingham
1.29
Brentford
1.10

finishing

Birmingham+0.00on par
Brentford+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham ↓

Brentford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Birmingham or draw
59%
Birmingham or Brentford
73%
Draw or Brentford
67%

Winning margin

Birmingham wins by 2+
13%
Brentford wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Birmingham 1+ goals
69%
Birmingham 2+ goals
33%
Birmingham 3+ goals
12%
Brentford 1+ goals
74%
Brentford 2+ goals
39%
Brentford 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Birmingham (draw refunded)
45%
Brentford (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 175 matches

Brentford away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.10 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham attack 1.25 + Brentford defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Brentford attack 1.41 + Birmingham defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Birmingham scores more
33%
level
27%
Brentford scores more
41%

Brentford at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Brentford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
J. JeanvierBrentfordBrentford · D
7.6

Match Events

26'
Romaine Sawyers
52'
Julian Jeanvier
64'
Neal Maupay
67'
S. Benrahma← N. Maupay
75'
Yoann Barbet
79'
O. Bogle← Che Adams
79'
N. Yennaris← J. McEachran
82'
C. Mahoney← Jota Peleteiro
82'
A. Judge← Sergi Canós
90'
Nicholas Yennaris

Possession

39%Birmingham

Shots

5Birmingham

Pass accuracy

44%Birmingham

Statistics

BirminghamBrentford
Overview
39%Possession61%
5Total Shots7
4Corners3
13Fouls12
Shots
5Total Shots7
1On Target2
2Off Target3
2Blocked2
1Inside Box6
4Outside Box1
Passing
39%Possession61%
303Total Passes482
173Accurate Passes358
57%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls12
0Yellow Cards5
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Birmingham vs Brentford

Birmingham and Brentford drew 0-0 in Championship on December 29, 2018.

Brentford controlled possession (61%) and registered 7 shots to 5.

The match was played at St. Andrew's Stadium in Birmingham.