Birmingham Legion 0–2 Tulsa Roughnecks

Birmingham Legion

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tulsa Roughnecks

7/23/2022

USL Championship · Round 28Protective Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Birmingham Legion46%

×Draw25%

Tulsa Roughnecks29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Birmingham LegionExpected goals in this matchTulsa Roughnecks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.20

Birmingham Legion

1.57

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.20

Birmingham Legion creates 31% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 130 away

1.33

creates per match

1.19

1.21

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Birmingham Legion

1.33

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.19

allows per match

Birmingham Legion

1.21

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham Legion+0.00on par

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham Legion ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Birmingham Legion or draw

71%

Birmingham Legion or Tulsa Roughnecks

75%

Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks

54%

Winning margin

Birmingham Legion wins by 2+

23%

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Birmingham Legion 1+ goals

79%

Birmingham Legion 2+ goals

46%

Birmingham Legion 3+ goals

21%

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals

70%

Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals

34%

Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)

61%

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham Legion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham Legion attack 1.33 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.57

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Birmingham Legion scores more

46%

level

25%

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more

29%

Birmingham Legion at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Birmingham Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff