Birmingham Legion 4–2 Sporting KC II

Birmingham Legion

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sporting KC II

8/12/2021

USL Championship · Round 26BBVA Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Birmingham Legion51%

×Draw24%

Sporting KC II26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Birmingham LegionExpected goals in this matchSporting KC II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.19

Birmingham Legion

1.76

Sporting KC II

1.19

Birmingham Legion creates 48% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 66 away

1.33

creates per match

1.18

1.21

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Birmingham Legion

1.33

Sporting KC II

1.18

allows per match

Birmingham Legion

1.21

Sporting KC II

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham Legion+0.00on par

Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham Legion ↓

Sporting KC II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Birmingham Legion or draw

74%

Birmingham Legion or Sporting KC II

76%

Draw or Sporting KC II

49%

Winning margin

Birmingham Legion wins by 2+

28%

Sporting KC II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Birmingham Legion 1+ goals

83%

Birmingham Legion 2+ goals

52%

Birmingham Legion 3+ goals

26%

Sporting KC II 1+ goals

70%

Sporting KC II 2+ goals

33%

Sporting KC II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)

66%

Sporting KC II (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham Legion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham Legion attack 1.33 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.76

Sporting KC II attack 1.18 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Birmingham Legion scores more

51%

level

24%

Sporting KC II scores more

26%

Birmingham Legion at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Birmingham Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff