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Birmingham Legion vs Ottawa Fury — USL Championship 2018

Birmingham Legion
Birmingham Legion
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ottawa Fury
Ottawa Fury
3/17/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 4BBVA Compass Field (Birmingham)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Birmingham Legion45%
×Draw26%
Ottawa Fury30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham Legion
1.49
Ottawa Fury
1.17

Birmingham Legion creates 27% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 34 away

creates per match

Birmingham Legion
1.33
Ottawa Fury
1.12

allows per match

Birmingham Legion
1.21
Ottawa Fury
1.65

finishing

Birmingham Legion+0.00on par
Ottawa Fury+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham Legion ↓

Ottawa Fury →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Birmingham Legion or draw
70%
Birmingham Legion or Ottawa Fury
74%
Draw or Ottawa Fury
55%

Winning margin

Birmingham Legion wins by 2+
22%
Ottawa Fury wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Birmingham Legion 1+ goals
77%
Birmingham Legion 2+ goals
44%
Birmingham Legion 3+ goals
19%
Ottawa Fury 1+ goals
69%
Ottawa Fury 2+ goals
33%
Ottawa Fury 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)
60%
Ottawa Fury (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham Legion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

Ottawa Fury away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham Legion attack 1.33 + Ottawa Fury defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.49

Ottawa Fury attack 1.12 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Birmingham Legion scores more
45%
level
26%
Ottawa Fury scores more
30%

Birmingham Legion at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Birmingham Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Birmingham Legion vs Ottawa Fury

Ottawa Fury beat Birmingham Legion 1-0 in USL Championship on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at BBVA Compass Field (Birmingham).