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Birmingham Legion vs OKC Energy — USL Championship 2018

Birmingham Legion
Birmingham Legion
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
OKC Energy
OKC Energy
5/27/2021USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 6BBVA Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Birmingham Legion44%
×Draw25%
OKC Energy30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham Legion
1.54
OKC Energy
1.23

Birmingham Legion creates 25% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 62 away

creates per match

Birmingham Legion
1.33
OKC Energy
1.24

allows per match

Birmingham Legion
1.21
OKC Energy
1.76

finishing

Birmingham Legion+0.00on par
OKC Energy+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham Legion ↓

OKC Energy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Birmingham Legion or draw
70%
Birmingham Legion or OKC Energy
75%
Draw or OKC Energy
56%

Winning margin

Birmingham Legion wins by 2+
22%
OKC Energy wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Birmingham Legion 1+ goals
79%
Birmingham Legion 2+ goals
45%
Birmingham Legion 3+ goals
20%
OKC Energy 1+ goals
71%
OKC Energy 2+ goals
35%
OKC Energy 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)
59%
OKC Energy (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham Legion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

OKC Energy away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham Legion attack 1.33 + OKC Energy defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.54

OKC Energy attack 1.24 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Birmingham Legion scores more
44%
level
25%
OKC Energy scores more
30%

Birmingham Legion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Birmingham Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Birmingham Legion 1–0 OKC Energy

Birmingham Legion beat OKC Energy 1-0 in USL Championship on May 27, 2021.

The match was played at BBVA Field in Birmingham, Alabama.