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Birmingham Legion vs North Carolina — USL Championship 2018

Birmingham Legion
Birmingham Legion
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
North Carolina
North Carolina
9/26/2020USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 25BBVA Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Birmingham Legion40%
×Draw26%
North Carolina34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham Legion
1.36
North Carolina
1.23

Birmingham Legion creates 11% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 74 away

creates per match

Birmingham Legion
1.33
North Carolina
1.24

allows per match

Birmingham Legion
1.21
North Carolina
1.39

finishing

Birmingham Legion+0.00on par
North Carolina+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham Legion ↓

North Carolina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Birmingham Legion or draw
66%
Birmingham Legion or North Carolina
74%
Draw or North Carolina
60%

Winning margin

Birmingham Legion wins by 2+
18%
North Carolina wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Birmingham Legion 1+ goals
74%
Birmingham Legion 2+ goals
39%
Birmingham Legion 3+ goals
16%
North Carolina 1+ goals
71%
North Carolina 2+ goals
35%
North Carolina 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)
54%
North Carolina (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham Legion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

North Carolina away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham Legion attack 1.33 + North Carolina defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.36

North Carolina attack 1.24 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Birmingham Legion scores more
40%
level
26%
North Carolina scores more
34%

Birmingham Legion at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Birmingham Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Birmingham Legion 1–2 North Carolina

North Carolina beat Birmingham Legion 2-1 in USL Championship on September 26, 2020.

The match was played at BBVA Field in Birmingham, Alabama.