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Birmingham Legion vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026

Birmingham Legion
Birmingham Legion
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Indy Eleven
Indy Eleven
6/5/2025USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 13Protective Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Birmingham Legion44%
×Draw26%
Indy Eleven30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham Legion
1.46
Indy Eleven
1.17

Birmingham Legion creates 25% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 130 away

creates per match

Birmingham Legion
1.33
Indy Eleven
1.12

allows per match

Birmingham Legion
1.21
Indy Eleven
1.58

finishing

Birmingham Legion+0.00on par
Indy Eleven+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham Legion ↓

Indy Eleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Birmingham Legion or draw
70%
Birmingham Legion or Indy Eleven
74%
Draw or Indy Eleven
56%

Winning margin

Birmingham Legion wins by 2+
21%
Indy Eleven wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Birmingham Legion 1+ goals
77%
Birmingham Legion 2+ goals
43%
Birmingham Legion 3+ goals
18%
Indy Eleven 1+ goals
69%
Indy Eleven 2+ goals
33%
Indy Eleven 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)
59%
Indy Eleven (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham Legion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

Indy Eleven away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.58 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham Legion attack 1.33 + Indy Eleven defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Indy Eleven attack 1.12 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Birmingham Legion scores more
44%
level
26%
Indy Eleven scores more
30%

Birmingham Legion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Birmingham Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Birmingham Legion 0–1 Indy Eleven

Indy Eleven beat Birmingham Legion 1-0 in USL Championship on June 5, 2025.

The match was played at Protective Stadium.