Birmingham Legion vs Indy Eleven — USL Championship 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 114+ matches
Birmingham Legion44%
Indy Eleven30%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Birmingham Legion creates 27% more chances
Season form · 114 home / 127 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Birmingham Legion ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Birmingham Legion at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.19 · 114 matches
Indy Eleven away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.56 · 127 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Birmingham Legion attack 1.35 + Indy Eleven defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46
Indy Eleven attack 1.10 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.15
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Birmingham Legion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Birmingham Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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Atlanta United II
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Phoenix Rising
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LA Galaxy II
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Las Vegas Lights
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OKC Energy
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Colorado SpringsIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Birmingham Legion host Indy Eleven on Thursday, 13 October 2022 at 00:00. The match is part of the USL Championship 2026/2027 season.
USL Championship: Birmingham Legion 3–1 Indy Eleven
Birmingham Legion beat Indy Eleven 3-1 in USL Championship on October 13, 2022.
Goals: E. Martínez (25'), P. Kasim (29'), Marlon (61' pen), Stéfano Pinho (83').
The match was played at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Alabama.