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Birmingham Legion vs Austin Bold — USL Championship 2018

Birmingham Legion
Birmingham Legion
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Austin Bold
Austin Bold
10/14/2021USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 44BBVA Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Birmingham Legion47%
×Draw25%
Austin Bold28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birmingham Legion
1.56
Austin Bold
1.16

Birmingham Legion creates 34% more chances

Season form · 116 home / 41 away

creates per match

Birmingham Legion
1.33
Austin Bold
1.10

allows per match

Birmingham Legion
1.21
Austin Bold
1.78

finishing

Birmingham Legion+0.00on par
Austin Bold+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham Legion ↓

Austin Bold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Birmingham Legion or draw
72%
Birmingham Legion or Austin Bold
75%
Draw or Austin Bold
53%

Winning margin

Birmingham Legion wins by 2+
24%
Austin Bold wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Birmingham Legion 1+ goals
79%
Birmingham Legion 2+ goals
46%
Birmingham Legion 3+ goals
21%
Austin Bold 1+ goals
69%
Austin Bold 2+ goals
32%
Austin Bold 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Birmingham Legion (draw refunded)
62%
Austin Bold (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham Legion at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.21 · 116 matches

Austin Bold away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.78 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham Legion attack 1.33 + Austin Bold defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Austin Bold attack 1.10 + Birmingham Legion defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Birmingham Legion scores more
47%
level
25%
Austin Bold scores more
28%

Birmingham Legion at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Birmingham Legion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Birmingham Legion vs Austin Bold

Birmingham Legion beat Austin Bold 3-1 in USL Championship on October 14, 2021.

The match was played at BBVA Field in Birmingham, Alabama.