Birmingham City W 4–0 Huddersfield Town W

Birmingham City W

4 – 0

Huddersfield Town W

1/8/2023

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundSt Andrew's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Birmingham City W60%

×Draw19%

Huddersfield Town W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Birmingham City WExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.45

Birmingham City W

2.49

Huddersfield Town W

1.45

Birmingham City W creates 72% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

2.60

creates per match

1.50

1.40

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Birmingham City W

2.60

Huddersfield Town W

1.50

allows per match

Birmingham City W

1.40

Huddersfield Town W

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham City W+0.00on par

Huddersfield Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham City W ↓

Huddersfield Town W →

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Birmingham City W or draw

79%

Birmingham City W or Huddersfield Town W

81%

Draw or Huddersfield Town W

40%

Winning margin

Birmingham City W wins by 2+

39%

Huddersfield Town W wins by 2+

Team goals

Birmingham City W 1+ goals

92%

Birmingham City W 2+ goals

71%

Birmingham City W 3+ goals

45%

Huddersfield Town W 1+ goals

77%

Huddersfield Town W 2+ goals

42%

Huddersfield Town W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Birmingham City W (draw refunded)

74%

Huddersfield Town W (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Birmingham City W at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Huddersfield Town W away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham City W attack 2.60 + Huddersfield Town W defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.49

Huddersfield Town W attack 1.50 + Birmingham City W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Birmingham City W scores more

60%

level

19%

Huddersfield Town W scores more

21%

Birmingham City W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Birmingham City W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff