Birmingham City U21 vs Nottingham Forest U21 — League #702 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 7+ matches
Birmingham City U2123%
Nottingham Forest U2153%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Nottingham Forest U21 creates 63% more chances
Season form · 7 home / 16 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over51
- Under49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Birmingham City U21 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Birmingham City U21 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches
Nottingham Forest U21 away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Birmingham City U21 attack 1.00 + Nottingham Forest U21 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.03
Nottingham Forest U21 attack 1.06 + Birmingham City U21 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.68
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Nottingham Forest U21 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Nottingham Forest U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Birmingham City U21 substitutes
Head to Head
1 previous meeting · small sampleNottingham Forest U21Birmingham City U21
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Newcastle United U21If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Birmingham City U21 host Nottingham Forest U21 on Friday, 24 October 2025 at 18:00. The match is part of the League #702 2026/2027 season.
League #702: Birmingham City U21 2–1 Nottingham Forest U21
Birmingham City U21 beat Nottingham Forest U21 2-1 in League #702 on October 24, 2025.
Goals: Z. Blake (18'), B. Burrell (58', 64').
The match was played at The Arden Garages Stadium in Stratford upon Avon.