Birmingham City U18 2–8 West Bromwich Albion U18

Birmingham City U18

FT

2 – 8

HT: 2 – 5

West Bromwich Albion U18

L. Brannigan 25'

L. Rea 3'

J. Francis-Caesar 75'

R. McNeil 66'

J. Seven-Seven 57'

A. Okorodudu 39'

R. Parmar 34', 29', 19', 6'

9/20/2025

League #696 · South - 5The Knighthead Training and Academy Grounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Birmingham City U186%

×Draw9%

West Bromwich Albion U1885%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Birmingham City U18Expected goals in this matchWest Bromwich Albion U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

4.13

Birmingham City U18

1.13

West Bromwich Albion U18

4.13

West Bromwich Albion U18 creates 265% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.25

creates per match

3.75

4.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Birmingham City U18

1.25

West Bromwich Albion U18

3.75

allows per match

Birmingham City U18

4.50

West Bromwich Albion U18

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Birmingham City U18+0.00on par

West Bromwich Albion U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birmingham City U18 ↓

West Bromwich Albion U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–25%

0–37%

0–47%

1

1–01%

1–13%

1–26%

1–38%

1–48%

2

2–00%

2–12%

2–23%

2–34%

2–45%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 69% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

55%45%

Double chance

Birmingham City U18 or draw

15%

Birmingham City U18 or West Bromwich Albion U18

91%

Draw or West Bromwich Albion U18

94%

Winning margin

Birmingham City U18 wins by 2+

2%

West Bromwich Albion U18 wins by 2+

70%

Team goals

Birmingham City U18 1+ goals

68%

Birmingham City U18 2+ goals

31%

Birmingham City U18 3+ goals

11%

West Bromwich Albion U18 1+ goals

98%

West Bromwich Albion U18 2+ goals

91%

West Bromwich Albion U18 3+ goals

75%

Draw no bet

Birmingham City U18 (draw refunded)

7%

West Bromwich Albion U18 (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birmingham City U18 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

West Bromwich Albion U18 away — creates 3.75, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birmingham City U18 attack 1.25 + West Bromwich Albion U18 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

West Bromwich Albion U18 attack 3.75 + Birmingham City U18 defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 4.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Birmingham City U18 scores more

6%

level

9%

West Bromwich Albion U18 scores more

85%

West Bromwich Albion U18 at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "West Bromwich Albion U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

L. Rea↳ K. McCusker

6'

R. Parmar

19'

R. Parmar↳ R. Colesby

25'

29'

34'

39'

57'

J. Seven-Seven↳ A. Okorodudu

66'

R. McNeil

75'

J. Francis-Caesar↳ A. Letlat

Birmingham

West

1

7

3

6

5

2

4

8

9

10

11

1

2

3

6

5

4

7

8

14

10

9

Manager: Martyn Olorenshaw

Birmingham City U18 substitutes

15Okpapi17McKayle11Nunes-Wickham16Hawkeswood13Birmingham

Manager: Leigh Downing

West Bromwich Albion U18 substitutes

12Asomugha15Sankoh14Bastafield16Francis-Caesar17Seven-Seven