Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Birkirkara vs Tarxien Rainbows — League #393 2026

Birkirkara
Birkirkara
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Tarxien Rainbows
Tarxien Rainbows
2/3/2026League #393League #393 · Second Stage - Main - 20Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Birkirkara81%
×Draw13%
Tarxien Rainbows7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birkirkara
2.81
Tarxien Rainbows
0.69

Birkirkara creates 307% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Birkirkara
2.29
Tarxien Rainbows
0.67

allows per match

Birkirkara
0.71
Tarxien Rainbows
3.33

finishing

Birkirkara+0.00on par
Tarxien Rainbows+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birkirkara ↓

Tarxien Rainbows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Birkirkara or draw
93%
Birkirkara or Tarxien Rainbows
87%
Draw or Tarxien Rainbows
19%

Winning margin

Birkirkara wins by 2+
60%
Tarxien Rainbows wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Birkirkara 1+ goals
94%
Birkirkara 2+ goals
76%
Birkirkara 3+ goals
52%
Tarxien Rainbows 1+ goals
50%
Tarxien Rainbows 2+ goals
15%
Tarxien Rainbows 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Birkirkara (draw refunded)
92%
Tarxien Rainbows (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birkirkara at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Tarxien Rainbows away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birkirkara attack 2.29 + Tarxien Rainbows defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.81

Tarxien Rainbows attack 0.67 + Birkirkara defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Birkirkara scores more
81%
level
13%
Tarxien Rainbows scores more
7%

Birkirkara at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Birkirkara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #393: Birkirkara 5–0 Tarxien Rainbows

Birkirkara beat Tarxien Rainbows 5-0 in League #393 on February 3, 2026.

The match was played at Centenary Stadium.