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Birkirkara vs Marsaxlokk — FA Trophy 2020

Birkirkara
Birkirkaraadvanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Marsaxlokk
Marsaxlokk
4/30/2023FA TrophyFA Trophy · FinalTa'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Birkirkara51%
×Draw23%
Marsaxlokk25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birkirkara
1.78
Marsaxlokk
1.18

Birkirkara creates 51% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 7 away

creates per match

Birkirkara
2.57
Marsaxlokk
1.57

allows per match

Birkirkara
0.79
Marsaxlokk
1.00

finishing

Birkirkara+0.00on par
Marsaxlokk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birkirkara ↓

Marsaxlokk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Birkirkara or draw
75%
Birkirkara or Marsaxlokk
77%
Draw or Marsaxlokk
49%

Winning margin

Birkirkara wins by 2+
28%
Marsaxlokk wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Birkirkara 1+ goals
83%
Birkirkara 2+ goals
53%
Birkirkara 3+ goals
26%
Marsaxlokk 1+ goals
69%
Marsaxlokk 2+ goals
33%
Marsaxlokk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Birkirkara (draw refunded)
67%
Marsaxlokk (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birkirkara at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Marsaxlokk away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birkirkara attack 2.57 + Marsaxlokk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.78

Marsaxlokk attack 1.57 + Birkirkara defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Birkirkara scores more
51%
level
23%
Marsaxlokk scores more
25%

Birkirkara at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Birkirkara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Birkirkara vs Marsaxlokk

Birkirkara beat Marsaxlokk 2-0 in FA Trophy on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Ta'Qali National Stadium in Ta'Qali.