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Birkirkara vs Hamrun Spartans — FA Trophy 2020

Birkirkara
Birkirkara
AET
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Hamrun Spartans
Hamrun Spartans
3/30/2024FA TrophyFA Trophy · Quarter-finalsTa'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Birkirkara38%
×Draw23%
Hamrun Spartans39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Birkirkara
1.69
Hamrun Spartans
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

creates per match

Birkirkara
2.57
Hamrun Spartans
2.60

allows per match

Birkirkara
0.79
Hamrun Spartans
0.80

finishing

Birkirkara+0.00on par
Hamrun Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Birkirkara ↓

Hamrun Spartans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Birkirkara or draw
61%
Birkirkara or Hamrun Spartans
77%
Draw or Hamrun Spartans
62%

Winning margin

Birkirkara wins by 2+
19%
Hamrun Spartans wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Birkirkara 1+ goals
82%
Birkirkara 2+ goals
50%
Birkirkara 3+ goals
24%
Hamrun Spartans 1+ goals
82%
Hamrun Spartans 2+ goals
51%
Hamrun Spartans 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Birkirkara (draw refunded)
50%
Hamrun Spartans (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Birkirkara at home — creates 2.57, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

Hamrun Spartans away — creates 2.60, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Birkirkara attack 2.57 + Hamrun Spartans defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.69

Hamrun Spartans attack 2.60 + Birkirkara defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Birkirkara scores more
38%
level
23%
Hamrun Spartans scores more
39%

Hamrun Spartans at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hamrun Spartans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Trophy: Birkirkara 2–2 Hamrun Spartans

Birkirkara and Hamrun Spartans drew 2-2 in FA Trophy on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Ta'Qali National Stadium in Ta'Qali.