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Biolog vs Spartak Nalchik — Second League - Group 1 2020

Biolog
Biolog
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Spartak Nalchik
Spartak Nalchik
4/20/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 5Stadion Biolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Biolog41%
×Draw25%
Spartak Nalchik34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Biolog
1.48
Spartak Nalchik
1.34

Biolog creates 10% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 96 away

creates per match

Biolog
1.64
Spartak Nalchik
1.24

allows per match

Biolog
1.45
Spartak Nalchik
1.33

finishing

Biolog+0.00on par
Spartak Nalchik+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Biolog ↓

Spartak Nalchik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Biolog or draw
66%
Biolog or Spartak Nalchik
75%
Draw or Spartak Nalchik
59%

Winning margin

Biolog wins by 2+
20%
Spartak Nalchik wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Biolog 1+ goals
77%
Biolog 2+ goals
43%
Biolog 3+ goals
19%
Spartak Nalchik 1+ goals
74%
Spartak Nalchik 2+ goals
39%
Spartak Nalchik 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Biolog (draw refunded)
54%
Spartak Nalchik (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Biolog at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.45 · 73 matches

Spartak Nalchik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.33 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Biolog attack 1.64 + Spartak Nalchik defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Spartak Nalchik attack 1.24 + Biolog defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Biolog scores more
41%
level
25%
Spartak Nalchik scores more
34%

Biolog at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Biolog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Biolog vs Spartak Nalchik

Biolog beat Spartak Nalchik 3-2 in Second League - Group 1 on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Biolog in Progress.